Monthly Decision Maker Panel data - October 2026

News release

The October 2026 DMP survey was conducted between 2-16 October 2026 and received 1,945 responses.

Firms reported that their realised annual own-price growth was 3.8% in the three months to October, up 0.1 percentage points from the three months to September. Note that the DMP covers own prices from firms across the whole economy, not just consumer-facing firms.

Year-ahead own-price inflation was expected to be 3.8% in the three months to October 2026, 0.1 percentage points higher than firms reported in the three months to September 2026. Businesses therefore expect output price inflation to be unchanged over the next year, based on three-month averages.

Expectations for year-ahead CPI inflation rose to 3.3% in the three months to October, up from 3.1% in the three months to September. The corresponding measure for three-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations was 2.8% in the three months to October, which remains unchanged relative to the three months to September.

Firms reported that annual wage growth was 3.9% in the three months to October, down 0.1 percentage points from the three months to September. Expected year-ahead wage growth was unchanged at 3.4% in the three months to October. This implies that firms expect their wage growth to decline by 0.5 percentage points over the next 12 months.

Firms reported that realised annual employment growth was -0.5% in the three months to October, down from -0.2% in the three months to September. Expectations for employment growth over the next year were unchanged at 0.2% in the three months to October.

Since April, the DMP survey has asked firms how they expect the recent energy shock to affect their business over the next 12 months. In October, higher prices and lower profit margins remained the most common forms of adjustment. 68% of firms expected to increase prices (4 percentage points higher than April and 11 percentage points higher than September), while 3% expected to lower prices. At the same time, 71% of firms expected lower profit margins in October, 3 percentage points higher than in April and similar to responses from September.

The next release date for the DMP survey data will be 4 December 2026.

The DMP was set up in August 2016 and is run by the Bank of England in collaboration with King’s College London and the University of Nottingham. It was designed to be representative of the population of UK businesses. All results are weighted. See Bunn et al (2024) for more details.

The DMP receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council.