Monthly Decision Maker Panel data - July 2026

Monthly Decision Maker Panel data - July 2026

The July 2026 DMP survey was conducted between 3-17 July 2026 and received 1,982 responses.

Firms reported that their realised annual own-price growth was 3.8% in the three months to July, unchanged from the three months to June. Note that the DMP covers own prices from firms across the whole economy, not just consumer-facing firms.

Year-ahead own-price inflation was expected to be 3.9% in the three months to July, 0.2 percentage points lower than firms reported in the three months to June. Businesses therefore expect output price inflation to rise by 0.1 percentage points over the next year, based on three-month averages.

Expectations for year-ahead CPI inflation fell to 3.4% in the three months to July, down from 3.7% in the three months to June. The corresponding measure for three-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations was 2.8% in the three months to July, edging down from 2.9% in the three months to June.

Firms reported that annual wage growth was 4.0% in the three months to July, down by 0.1 percentage points from the three months to June. Expected year-ahead wage growth fell by 0.1 percentage points to 3.4% in the three months to July. This implies that firms expect their wage growth to decline by 0.6 percentage points over the next 12 months.

Firms reported that realised annual employment growth was -0.4% in the three months to July, up from -0.6% in the three months to June. Expectations for employment growth over the next year were unchanged at -0.1% in the three months to July.

Since April, the DMP survey has asked firms how they expect the recent energy shock to affect their business over the next 12 months. In July, higher prices and lower profit margins remained the most common forms of adjustment. 55% of firms expected to increase prices (down 9 percentage points since April), while 5% expected to lower prices. At the same time, 64% of firms expected lower profit margins, down from 68% in April. The expected impact of higher energy prices on wages remained modest, with 19% of firms expecting wages to increase and 17% expecting them to be lower.

The next release date for the DMP survey data will be 4 September 2026.

The DMP was set up in August 2016 and is run by the Bank of England in collaboration with King’s College London and the University of Nottingham. It was designed to be representative of the population of UK businesses. All results are weighted. See Bunn et al (2024) for more details.

The DMP receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council.