Systemic Risk Survey Results - 2026 H2

Overview

The Bank of England’s financial stability objective is to protect and enhance the stability of the financial system of the United Kingdom. The Systemic Risk Survey contributes to this objective by quantifying and tracking, on a biannual basis, market participants’ views of risks to, and their confidence in, the stability of the UK financial system.footnote [1]

The survey is generally completed by executives responsible for firms’ risk management or treasury functions. The results presented are based on responses to the survey and do not necessarily reflect the Bank of England’s views on risks to the UK financial system. Participants include UK banks and building societies, large foreign banks, asset managers, hedge funds, insurers, pension funds, large non-financial companies and central counterparties. Summary statistics are calculated by giving equal weight to each survey response.

Additional background information on the survey is available in the 2009 Q3 Quarterly Bulletin article Bank of England Systemic Risk Survey.

This report presents the results of the 2026 H2 survey, which was conducted between 27 July and 24 August 2026.

57 firms participated in the 2026 H2 survey, representing a 66% response rate.

Key results from 2026 H2 survey

Survey respondents remain confident in the stability of the UK financial system, reporting a similar level of confidence compared to the 2026 H1 survey.

The perceived probability of a high-impact event affecting the UK financial system over the short and medium term is higher compared to the previous survey.

Geopolitical risk and cyberattack remain the two most frequently cited sources of risk among participants. They are also considered the most challenging risks to manage, as well as the most likely risks to materialise.

The number of participants citing risks surrounding artificial intelligence has increased substantially, reaching its highest level recorded in the survey across all three categories: source of risk to the UK financial system, most challenging risk to manage, and most likely risk to materialise. Combined with a sustained upward trend over recent surveys, this suggests AI-related risks are becoming a mainstream concern for market participants.

The proportion of respondents citing UK political risk has decreased compared to the 2026 H1 survey, while the proportion citing inflation risk has increased.

Confidence in the UK financial system

Respondents were asked about the level of confidence they have in the stability of the UK financial system over the next three years.

Chart 1 represents the results in one weighted measure, while the figures below and in Table A1 refer to simple percentages.

Survey respondents remain confident in the stability of the UK financial system, reporting a similar level of confidence compared to the 2026 H1 survey.

95% of respondents judge themselves as being very confident (39%, unchanged since the 2026 H1 survey), or fairly confident (56%, +2 percentage points).

5% of respondents judge themselves as being not very confident (-2 percentage points).

No respondents report being completely confident, or having no confidence (unchanged since the 2026 H1 survey).

Chart 1: Confidence in the stability of the UK financial system as a whole over the next three years (a)

Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.

(a) Respondents were asked how much confidence they had in the stability of the UK financial system as a whole over the next three years. The net percentage balance is calculated by weighting responses as follows: complete confidence (1), very confident (0.5), fairly confident (0), not very confident (-0.5) and no confidence (-1). Bars show the contribution of each component to the net percentage balance.

Probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system

Respondents were asked for their view on the probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the short and medium term.footnote [2]

Charts 2 and 3 represent results in one weighted measure, while the figures below and in Table A1 refer to simple percentages.

Respondents judge that the likelihood of a high-impact event is higher than judged in the previous survey over both the short and medium term.

Over the short term (0–12 months):

No respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be very high (unchanged since the 2026 H1 survey).

28% of respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be high (+5 percentage points).

47% of respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be medium (unchanged since the 2026 H1 survey).

25% of respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be low (23%, -4 percentage points) or very low (2%, -2 percentage points).

Chart 2: Probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system over the short term (a) (b)

Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.

(a) Respondents were asked what the probability is of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the short term, as well as how they thought this probability had changed over the past six months. From the 2009 H2 survey onwards, short term was defined as 0–12 months.

(b) Bars show the contribution of each component to the net percentage balance. The net percentage balance in this chart is calculated by weighting responses as follows: very high (1), high (0.5), medium (0), low (-0.5) and very low (-1).

Over the medium term (1–3 years):

7% of respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be very high (+5 percentage points).

40% of respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be high (-2 percentage points).

46% of respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be medium (unchanged since the 2026 H1 survey).

No respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be very low (unchanged since the 2026 H1 survey), and 7% consider the likelihood to be low (-4 percentage points).

Chart 3: Probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system over the medium term (a) (b)

Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.

(a) Respondents were asked what the probability is of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the medium term, as well as how they thought this probability had changed over the past six months. From the 2009 H2 survey onwards, medium term was defined as 1–3 years.

(b) Refer to footnote (b) of Chart 2.

Sources of risk to the UK financial system

Respondents were asked to list the five risks they thought would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise. To give an overview of the results, answers, which were provided in free-text format, have been grouped into the 26 categories shown in Table A2.footnote [3] The risks most frequently cited by respondents in the 2026 H2 survey as one of their top five risks are shown in Chart 4 below:

1. Geopolitical risk (cited by 91% of respondents, -4 percentage points since the 2026 H1 survey).

2. Cyberattack (75%, -7 percentage points).

3. Risks surrounding artificial intelligence (63%, +32 percentage points).

4. Risks associated with a UK economic downturn (51%, +4 percentage points).

5. Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation (32%, -16 percentage points).

The risks most commonly cited by market participants as their ‘number one’ source of risk to the UK financial system (Chart 5) were:

1. Geopolitical risk (47%, +2 percentage points).

2. Cyberattack (26%, unchanged since the 2026 H1 survey).

3. Operational risk (7%, -2 percentage points).

4. Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn (5%, unchanged since the 2026 H1 survey).

5= Risks associated with a UK economic downturn (4%, unchanged since the 2026 H1 survey).

5= Risks surrounding artificial intelligence (4%, +2 percentage points).

Geopolitical risk and cyberattack remain the two most frequently cited sources of risk with the greatest potential impact on UK the financial system, should they materialise.

The number of participants citing risks surrounding artificial intelligence has risen markedly over successive surveys.

The number of respondents citing risks surrounding artificial intelligence has risen sharply (+32 percentage points) since the 2026 H1 survey. This represents one of the largest movements in recent survey rounds and moves AI-related risks from a relatively lower ranked concern to the third most cited risk amongst participants. Participants highlighted a range of concerns, notably the rapid pace of technological developments, alongside lack of controls and governance.

Despite the steep increase in the number of respondents citing risks surrounding artificial intelligence, there has been only a small rise in the number of participants placing it as their ‘number one’ source of risk.

Geopolitical risk (91%) and cyberattack (75%) continue to remain the most frequently cited risks.

Geopolitical risk also remains, by a considerable margin, the most frequently cited ‘number one’ source of risk (mentioned by 47% of respondents).

Respondents citing risk of financial market disruption/dislocation and operational risk have both fallen by 16 percentage points since the 2026 H1 survey.

Beyond the top five risks, the number of participants citing UK political risk decreased (7%, -9 percentage points), while the number of participants citing inflation risk increased (9%, +7 percentage points).

Chart 4: Perceived key sources of risk to the UK financial system (a) (b)

Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.

(a) Respondents were asked to list the five risks they thought would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise. Answers were in a free-text format and were grouped into categories after the questionnaires had been submitted; only one category was selected for each answer. Chart figures are the percentages of respondents citing a given risk at least once, among respondents citing at least one key risk. The chart shows the top five categories; refer to the data appendix for additional categories.

(b) Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data.

Chart 5: ‘Number one’ sources of risk to the UK financial system (a) (b)

Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.

(a) Respondents were asked to list the five risks they thought would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, in order of potential impact (ie greatest impact first). Answers were in a free-text format and were grouped into categories after the questionnaires had been submitted; only one category was selected for each answer. Chart figures are the percentages of respondents citing a given risk as their number one key risk, among respondents citing at least one key risk. The chart shows the top five ‘number one’ sources of risk that have been cited in the most recent survey; refer to the data appendix for more detail.

(b) Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data.

Most challenging risks to manage as a firm

Respondents were asked to rank which of the five risks they identified would be the most challenging to manage, should they materialise.

The most cited risks are shown below (Chart 6):

1. Geopolitical risk (cited by 68% of respondents, -12 percentage points since the 2026 H1 survey).

2. Cyberattack (67%, -11 percentage point).

3. Risks surrounding artificial intelligence (37%, +26 percentage points).

4. Risks associated with a UK economic downturn (28%, +5 percentage points).

5. Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn (14%, -5 percentage points).

Chart 6: Risks most challenging to manage as a firm (a) (b)

Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.

(a) After respondents had listed the five risks they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, they were asked to rank which of these risks they would find most challenging to manage as a firm. The data is based on participants’ top three ranked risks. Answers were in a free-text format and were grouped into categories after the questionnaires had been submitted; only one category was selected for each answer. Chart figures are the percentages of respondents citing a given risk at least once, among respondents citing at least one key risk. The chart shows the top five categories only; see the data appendix for additional categories.

(b) Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data.

Geopolitical risk and cyberattack are still considered to be the most challenging risks to manage.

The share of survey respondents citing risks surrounding artificial intelligence has increased sharply, to its highest levels recorded in the survey.

Although there has been a noticeable decrease in the number of respondents citing geopolitical risk (68%, -12 percentage points) and cyberattack (67%, -11 percentage points), they are still considered the most challenging risks to manage.

There has been a steep increase in the number of respondents citing risks surrounding artificial intelligence (37%, +26 percentage points), now making it the third most challenging risk to manage.

The proportion of respondents citing operational risk has continued to fall from its peak in the 2025 H1 survey, now dropping out of the top five most cited risks.

The proportion of participants citing UK political risk has decreased (4%, -7 percentage points).

Key risks most likely to materialise

After respondents listed the five risks they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, they were then asked to rank which of these risks they thought would be the most probable to materialise.footnote [4]

The most cited risks are shown below (Chart 7):

1. Geopolitical risk (cited by 88% of respondents, +4 percentage points since the 2026 H1 survey).

2. Cyberattack (51%, -5 percentage points).

3. Risks associated with a UK economic downturn (37%, +2 percentage points).

4. Risks surrounding artificial intelligence (32%, +18 percentage points).

5. Operational risk (16%, -7 percentage points).

Chart 7: Risks most likely to materialise – as mentioned by respondents (a) (b) (c)

Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.

(a) After listing the five risks they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, respondents were then asked to rank which of these risks they perceived as most likely to materialise. The data is based on participants top three ranked risks. Answers were in a free-text format and were grouped into categories after the questionnaires had been submitted; only one category was selected for each answer. Chart figures are the percentages of respondents citing a given risk at least once, among respondents citing at least one key risk.

(b) Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data.

(c) The risks presented in this chart include only those cited as most likely to materialise by at least 5% of respondents. Please refer to Table A4 in the data appendix for details.

Geopolitical risk remains the most likely risk to materialise according to respondents, continuing to rise since the 2025 H2 survey to reach its highest level recorded in the survey.

Cyberattack and risks associated with a UK economic downturn remain the second and third most likely risks to materialise, respectively.

The number of participants citing risks surrounding artificial intelligence has risen sharply since the 2026 H1 survey (+18 percentage points). It has continued its upward trend since the 2025 H1 survey and is now at its highest level recorded in the survey.

The proportion of respondents citing UK political risk as the most likely risk to materialise has decreased by 9 percentage points.

Data appendix

Aggregate risks to the UK financial system (a) (b) (c)2023 H12023 H22024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H22026 H12026 H2Probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the short term (d)Very high62002000High4636241722192328Medium3332504642514747Low1427233531292623Very low14324242Probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the medium term (d)Very high117805327High5650384331424240Medium2834394353474646Low691513117117Very low00020000Change in the probability over the past six months of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the short term (e)Increased5123352636394425Unchanged3559525756595172Decreased141814177254Change in the probability over the past six months of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the medium term (e)Increased4227322449463835Unchanged5170656747545961Decreased74394044Confidence in the stability of the UK financial system as a whole over the next three years (f)Complete confidence12020000Very confident2429293835373939Fairly confident6963655653585456Not very confident676413575No confidence00000000Change in confidence over the past six months (g)Increased775169544Unchanged5080807364838281Decreased4313151127121416FootnotesSources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.(a) Entries are percentages of respondents and may not sum to 100% due to rounding.(b) The survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008. Between 2020 H1 and 2021 H1, the survey was paused due to Covid.(c) Figures are expressed as nearest whole integer, so may appear inconsistent with figures shown in the text of the survey.(d) Respondents were asked what the probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system was in their view, for both the short and medium term. Since the 2009 H2 survey, short and medium term have been specifically identified as 0–12 months and 1–3 years respectively. These terms were not explicitly defined in earlier surveys.(e) Respondents were asked how the probability had changed over the past six months for the short and medium term. Since the 2009 H2 survey, short and medium term have been specifically identified as 0–12 months and 1–3 years respectively. These terms were not explicitly defined in earlier surveys.(f) Respondents were asked how much confidence they had in the stability of the UK financial system as a whole over the next three years.(g) Respondents were asked how their confidence had changed over the past six months. The question was asked from 2010 H1 onwards.

Probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the short term (d)

Probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the medium term (d)

Change in the probability over the past six months of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the short term (e)

Change in the probability over the past six months of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the medium term (e)

Confidence in the stability of the UK financial system as a whole over the next three years (f)

Change in confidence over the past six months (g)

Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.

(a) Entries are percentages of respondents and may not sum to 100% due to rounding.

(b) The survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008. Between 2020 H1 and 2021 H1, the survey was paused due to Covid.

(c) Figures are expressed as nearest whole integer, so may appear inconsistent with figures shown in the text of the survey.

(d) Respondents were asked what the probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system was in their view, for both the short and medium term. Since the 2009 H2 survey, short and medium term have been specifically identified as 0–12 months and 1–3 years respectively. These terms were not explicitly defined in earlier surveys.

(e) Respondents were asked how the probability had changed over the past six months for the short and medium term. Since the 2009 H2 survey, short and medium term have been specifically identified as 0–12 months and 1–3 years respectively. These terms were not explicitly defined in earlier surveys.

(f) Respondents were asked how much confidence they had in the stability of the UK financial system as a whole over the next three years.

(g) Respondents were asked how their confidence had changed over the past six months. The question was asked from 2010 H1 onwards.

Sources of risk to the UK financial system (a) (b) (c) (d)2023 H12023 H22024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H22026 H12026 H2Geopolitical risk7966859387859591Cyberattack7580708073858275Risks surrounding artificial intelligence07141516203263Risks associated with a UK economic downturn3252444562564751Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation1323142233474732Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn2223143320363025Climate risk3939362915172119Operational risk2120122233363519Risk of infrastructure disruption171215981616Sovereign risk42379141214Household/corporate credit risk107202420141212Inflation risk5357412416729Risks around regulation/taxes171115131614119Funding risk7984131077Risk of property price falls10131172327Risk of tightening in credit conditions85320047Risks surrounding monetary and fiscal policy79627347UK political risk281621753167Other191411225855Risk of loss of confidence in the authorities32247724Pandemic risk85302002Risk of financial institution failure/distress6141755522Risk surrounding the low interest rate environment (e)00002002Risks around public anger against, or distrust of, financial institutions10344222Risk surrounding cryptocurrencies00204200Risk of lack of confidence in ratings, valuations and disclosure30300000Number one source of risk to the UK financial system (f)Geopolitical risk2823414242364647Cyberattack1027213118202626Operational risk105511597Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn40254555Risks associated with a UK economic downturn14161259844Risks surrounding artificial intelligence02200324Household/corporate credit risk30520022Inflation risk2514540202Risk of financial institution failure/distress02222202Sovereign risk12002722Climate risk00000200Funding risk02004500Other10000000Pandemic risk00000000Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation05224020Risk of infrastructure disruption12200000Risk of lack of confidence in ratings, valuations and disclosure00000000Risk of loss of confidence in the authorities10000000Risk of property price falls32000000Risk of tightening in credit conditions10000000Risk surrounding cryptocurrencies00000000Risk surrounding the low interest rate environment (e)00000000Risks around public anger against, or distrust of, financial institutions10000000Risks around regulation/taxes10222220Risks surrounding monetary and fiscal policy14002200UK political risk10302220FootnotesSources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.(a) Respondents were asked which five risks they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, in order of potential impact (ie greatest impact first). Answers were provided in a free-text format and were subsequently coded into the above categories; only one category was selected for each answer. Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data.(b) The survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008. Between 2020 H1 and 2021 H1, the survey was paused due to Covid.(c) Figures are expressed as nearest whole integer, so may appear inconsistent with figures shown in the text of the survey.(d) Percentages of respondents citing each risk at least once in their top five, among those citing at least one risk.(e) The definition of this risk includes risks associated with a snapback in low rates to more normal levels, as well as risks directly associated with low rates.(f) Percentages of respondents citing each risk as their number one risk (ie the risk with the greatest potential impact), among those citing at least one source of risk.

Risks surrounding artificial intelligence

Risks associated with a UK economic downturn

Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation

Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn

Risk of infrastructure disruption

Risk of property price falls

Risk of tightening in credit conditions

Risks surrounding monetary and fiscal policy

Risk of loss of confidence in the authorities

Risk of financial institution failure/distress

Risk surrounding the low interest rate environment (e)

Risks around public anger against, or distrust of, financial institutions

Risk of lack of confidence in ratings, valuations and disclosure

Number one source of risk to the UK financial system (f)

Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn

Risks associated with a UK economic downturn

Risks surrounding artificial intelligence

Risk of financial institution failure/distress

Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation

Risk of infrastructure disruption

Risk of lack of confidence in ratings, valuations and disclosure

Risk of loss of confidence in the authorities

Risk of property price falls

Risk of tightening in credit conditions

Risk surrounding the low interest rate environment (e)

Risks around public anger against, or distrust of, financial institutions

Risks surrounding monetary and fiscal policy

Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.

(a) Respondents were asked which five risks they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, in order of potential impact (ie greatest impact first). Answers were provided in a free-text format and were subsequently coded into the above categories; only one category was selected for each answer. Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data.

(b) The survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008. Between 2020 H1 and 2021 H1, the survey was paused due to Covid.

(c) Figures are expressed as nearest whole integer, so may appear inconsistent with figures shown in the text of the survey.

(d) Percentages of respondents citing each risk at least once in their top five, among those citing at least one risk.

(e) The definition of this risk includes risks associated with a snapback in low rates to more normal levels, as well as risks directly associated with low rates.

(f) Percentages of respondents citing each risk as their number one risk (ie the risk with the greatest potential impact), among those citing at least one source of risk.

Risks most challenging to manage as a firm (a) (b) (c)2023 H12023 H22024 H12024 H22025 H12025 H22026 H12026 H2Geopolitical risk4946707167688168Cyberattack5070597162737767Risks surrounding artificial intelligence02105971137Risks associated with a UK economic downturn2429181635272328Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn1118102211141914Operational risk111181625201812Risk of infrastructure disruption1710947911Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation353111115119Risks around regulation/taxes11477131077Sovereign risk32244847Inflation risk404116911325Other1357112755Funding risk69227354Risk of loss of confidence in the authorities30220324UK political risk1177443114Climate risk152016155852Household/corporate credit risk721674842Pandemic risk40002002Risk of financial institution failure/distress09845522Risk of property price falls64822002Risk of tightening in credit conditions34220002Risk surrounding the low interest rate environment (d)00000002Risks around public anger against, or distrust of, financial institutions00322222Risks surrounding monetary and fiscal policy34304022Risk of lack of confidence in ratings, valuations and disclosure00000000Risk surrounding cryptocurrencies00002000Cited at least one key risk, but did not cite any risk as challenging to manage (%)00000000Number of respondents citing at least one source of risk7256665555595757FootnotesSources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.(a) After respondents had listed the five risks they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, they were asked to rank which of these risks they would find most challenging to manage as a firm. The data is based on participants top three ranked risks. Answers were provided in a free-text format and were subsequently coded into the above categories; only one category was selected for each answer. Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data. Table entries are the percentages of respondents citing each risk at least once in this second question, among those citing at least one source of risk.(b) The survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008. Between 2020 H1 and 2021 H1, the survey was paused due to Covid.(c) Figures are expressed as nearest whole integer, so may appear inconsistent with figures shown in the text of the survey.(d) The definition of this risk includes risks associated with a snapback in low rates to more normal levels, as well as risks directly associated with low rates.

Risks surrounding artificial intelligence

Risks associated with a UK economic downturn

Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn

Risk of infrastructure disruption

Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation

Risk of loss of confidence in the authorities

Risk of financial institution failure/distress

Risk of property price falls

Risk of tightening in credit conditions

Risk surrounding the low interest rate environment (d)

Risks around public anger against, or distrust of, financial institutions

Risks surrounding monetary and fiscal policy

Risk of lack of confidence in ratings, valuations and disclosure

Cited at least one key risk, but did not cite any risk as challenging to manage (%)

Number of respondents citing at least one source of risk

Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.

(a) After respondents had listed the five risks they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, they were asked to rank which of these risks they would find most challenging to manage as a firm. The data is based on participants top three ranked risks. Answers were provided in a free-text format and were subsequently coded into the above categories; only one category was selected for each answer. Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data. Table entries are the percentages of respondents citing each risk at least once in this second question, among those citing at least one source of risk.

(b) The survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008. Between 2020 H1 and 2021 H1, the survey was paused due to Covid.

(c) Figures are expressed as nearest whole integer, so may appear inconsistent with figures shown in the text of the survey.

(d) The definition of this risk includes risks associated with a snapback in low rates to more normal levels, as well as risks directly associated with low rates.

Risks most probable to materialise (a) (b) (c)2024 H22025 H12025 H22026 H12026 H2Geopolitical risk7580718488Cyberattack6044565651Risks associated with a UK economic downturn2949413537Risks surrounding artificial intelligence5251432Operational risk1318192316Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation1516201412Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn229251812Inflation risk1513327Risk of infrastructure disruption45597Risk around regulation/taxes511897Household/corporate credit risk1513875Risk of property price falls42204Sovereign risk22344Risks surrounding monetary/fiscal policy02344Climate risk154594Funding risk04202Other92522Risk of tightening in credit conditions20002UK political risk443112Risks surrounding low interest rate environment (d)02002Risk of financial institution failure/distress00000Risks around public anger against, or distrust of, financial institutions02000Risk of lack of confidence in ratings, valuations and disclosure00000Risk of loss of confidence in the authorities24500Pandemic risk00000Risks surrounding cryptocurrencies04000Cited at least one key risk, but did not cite any risk as most likely to materialise (%)00000Number of respondents citing at least one source of risk5555595757FootnotesSources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.(a) After listing the five risks they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, respondents were then asked to rank which of these risks they perceived as most likely to materialise. The data is based on participants top three ranked risks. This element of the survey was introduced in 2021 H2. Answers were provided in a free-text format and were subsequently coded into the above categories; only one category was selected for each answer. Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data. Table entries are the percentages of respondents citing each risk at least once in this second question, among those citing at least one source of risk.(b) The survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008. Between 2020 H1 and 2021 H1, the survey was paused due to Covid.(c) Figures are expressed as nearest whole integer, so may appear inconsistent with figures shown in the text of the survey.(d) The definition of this risk includes risks associated with a snapback in low rates to more normal levels, as well as risks directly associated with low rates.

Risks associated with a UK economic downturn

Risks surrounding artificial intelligence

Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation

Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn

Risk of infrastructure disruption

Risk of property price falls

Risks surrounding monetary/fiscal policy

Risk of tightening in credit conditions

Risks surrounding low interest rate environment (d)

Risk of financial institution failure/distress

Risks around public anger against, or distrust of, financial institutions

Risk of lack of confidence in ratings, valuations and disclosure

Risk of loss of confidence in the authorities

Cited at least one key risk, but did not cite any risk as most likely to materialise (%)

Number of respondents citing at least one source of risk

Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.

(a) After listing the five risks they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, respondents were then asked to rank which of these risks they perceived as most likely to materialise. The data is based on participants top three ranked risks. This element of the survey was introduced in 2021 H2. Answers were provided in a free-text format and were subsequently coded into the above categories; only one category was selected for each answer. Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data. Table entries are the percentages of respondents citing each risk at least once in this second question, among those citing at least one source of risk.

(b) The survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008. Between 2020 H1 and 2021 H1, the survey was paused due to Covid.

(c) Figures are expressed as nearest whole integer, so may appear inconsistent with figures shown in the text of the survey.

(d) The definition of this risk includes risks associated with a snapback in low rates to more normal levels, as well as risks directly associated with low rates.

The Systemic Risk Survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008. It was published for the first time in November 2011. The survey results complement other sources of information used by the Bank to identify system-wide risks.

The Systemic Risk Survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008. It was published for the first time in November 2011. The survey results complement other sources of information used by the Bank to identify system-wide risks.

Since the 2009 H2 survey, short and medium term have been specifically identified as 0–12 months and 1–3 years respectively. These terms were not explicitly defined in earlier surveys.

Since the 2009 H2 survey, short and medium term have been specifically identified as 0–12 months and 1–3 years respectively. These terms were not explicitly defined in earlier surveys.

These summary categories are adjusted over time to better capture current risks cited. Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the new categories to ensure comparability across survey rounds.

These summary categories are adjusted over time to better capture current risks cited. Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the new categories to ensure comparability across survey rounds.

This question was introduced in the 2021 H2 survey.

This question was introduced in the 2021 H2 survey.

This question was introduced in the 2021 H2 survey.

These summary categories are adjusted over time to better capture current risks cited. Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the new categories to ensure comparability across survey rounds.

Since the 2009 H2 survey, short and medium term have been specifically identified as 0–12 months and 1–3 years respectively. These terms were not explicitly defined in earlier surveys.

The Systemic Risk Survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008. It was published for the first time in November 2011. The survey results complement other sources of information used by the Bank to identify system-wide risks.